nhl-forecasts
NHL Elo
This file contains links to the data behind our NHL Predictions. More information on how our NHL Elo model works can be found in this article.
nhl_elo.csv contains game-by-game Elo ratings and forecasts since the NHL's inaugural 1917-18 season.
nhl_elo_latest.csv contains game-by-game Elo ratings and forecasts for only the latest NHL season.
| Column | Definition |
|---|---|
| season | Year of season |
| date | Date of game |
| playoff | Whether game was a playoff game |
| neutral | Whether game was played at a neutral site |
| status | post if the game already happened; pre if it hasn't happened yet; live if it is being played at the time of data export |
| ot | Overtime status: OT if the game ended in overtime, SO if the game ended in a shootout, blank if the game ended in regulation or if the game hasn't happened yet (will be blank for pre and live games). Games that went into multiple overtimes have the number of overtimes listed before OT: 2OT, 3OT, etc. |
| home_team | Home team name |
| away_team | Away team name |
| home_team_abbr | Home team abbreviation. Multiple team names can fall under the same team_abbr because of name changes or moves. Interactive is grouped by team_abbr. |
| away_team_abbr | Away team abbreviation. Multiple team names can fall under the same team_abbr because of name changes or moves. Interactive is grouped by team_abbr. |
| home_team_pregame_rating | Home team's Elo rating before the game |
| away_team_pregame_rating | Away team's Elo rating before the game |
| home_team_winprob | Home team's probability of winning according to team pregame ratings |
| away_team_winprob | Away team's probability of winning according to team pregame ratings |
| overtime_prob | Probability that the game ends in overtime according to team pregame ratings (including shootouts) |
| home_team_expected_points | Home team's expected points earned at the time the game started, according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime) |
| away_team_expected_points | Away team's expected points earned at the time the game started, according to team pregame ratings (2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss in overtime or shootout) |
| home_team_score | Home team's score (will be blank for pre and live games) |
| away_team_score | Away team's score (will be blank for pre and live games) |
| home_team_postgame_rating | Home team's rating after the game (will be blank for pre and live games) |
| away_team_postgame_rating | Away team's rating after the game (will be blank for pre and live games) |
| game_quality_rating | Rating of game's quality, based on the harmonic mean of the teams’ pregame Elo ratings, scaled from 0-100 |
| game_importance_rating | Rating of game's importance, based on how much the result would affect the model's forecasted playoff odds, scaled from 0-100. For post games, this rating is as of when the game started. (will be blank for all games played prior to 2021-22 season, the year we added a NHL forecast) |
| game_overall_rating | The average of game_quality_rating and game_importance_rating (will be blank for all games played prior to 2021-22 season, the year we added a NHL forecast) |
Files
| Name | Download |
|---|---|
| nhl_elo.csv | |
| nhl_elo_latest.csv |
Data Previews
nhl_elo.csv
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nhl_elo_latest.csv
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