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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

spiSoccer Power Index
spi_offenseSoccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defenseSoccer Power Index defensive rating
win_groupChange of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteenChance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarterChance of advancing to the quarter finals
semiChance of advancing to the semi-finals
cupChance of making it to the final game
winChance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.